The Hard Path to Peace: Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Iran | Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology

The Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology hosted Jon B. Alterman for a briefing as part of its Geopolitics in the Age of AI series. The discussion covered the strategic and political challenges surrounding the current Iran war.

Drawing on decades of experience analyzing Middle East security and U.S. strategy, Alterman explored the range of potential outcomes emerging from the conflict and the enduring challenge of translating battlefield success into lasting political results. Reflecting on the concept of the “hiding hand,” developed by development economist Albert O. Hirschman, he discussed how governments often underestimate both the obstacles they face and the creativity required to overcome them.

While the United States and Israel possess formidable military capabilities, Alterman emphasized that shaping durable political outcomes, particularly influencing the decisions of future Iranian leadership, remains the more difficult strategic task. Achieving these objectives, he argued, may require far greater patience and sustained effort than policymakers often anticipate.

The discussion was moderated by Audrey Kurth Cronin, Director of the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology.

This event was made possible by the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology.

Video © Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology.