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Headwinds to America’s Long Game
Photo: iLab/CSIS
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Central to our mission is America's technology long game—a broadly bipartisan national goal. That long game, however, faces mounting headwinds. Record deficits and high debt service costs are limiting the fiscal space needed for essential investments—for instance, in basic R&D, infrastructure, and workforce development—that technology leadership requires. An erratic tariff agenda continues to inject uncertainty into allied technology supply chains. What’s more, a hot war in the Gulf now threatens to draw U.S. policymakers' attention away from an economic security and technology agenda that requires undivided national focus.
The economic security impact of the Iran war—or, more to the point, Iran's war against the global economy— is already proving pernicious. Tehran has virtually frozen shipping of oil, LNG, and fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz, and targeted the hydrocarbon and technology assets of its neighbors— testing the defense umbrella the United States has provided Gulf partners for decades. The knock-on effects will be hard to underestimate, especially for critical allies dependent on Gulf oil, including Japan and South Korea, and for countries in the Global South vulnerable to food and fuel price shocks.
Meanwhile China's high-tech drive is accelerating. The draft 15th Five-Year Plan targets next-generation technologies— new-type batteries, brain-computer interfaces, advanced chip architectures— with greater emphasis on deployment and integrated supply chains in biomanufacturing, green hydrogen, and commercial aerospace. This is not an aspirational document—read it as China’s geoeconomic blueprint for system-level competition.
Yet, the foundations of American technology leadership remain a work in progress and vulnerable to threats. The data center buildout in the United States requires GPU imports—a dependency that a single disruption could set back materially. The infrastructure behind the AI stack—subsea cables carrying $10 trillion in daily financial transactions, satellite networks transmitting unencrypted civilian communications, and data centers now targeted by Iranian cyber ops—also remains exposed and under-defended.
The physical infrastructure behind advanced technologies is just the foundation. It enables soft power and economic influence. But that soft power capability, however, will need an upgrade in today’s more competitive geopolitical environment. For example, the potential
of dollar-backed stablecoins to extend the U.S. monetary order will become increasingly relevant as the Iran war tests the dollar’s role in commodity markets. Similarly, the U.S. offer to the Global South, whether in the Pacific or in Africa, will require an improved economic statecraft toolkit—for instance, an AGOA 2.0 anchored in two-way market access, standards, and technology diffusion.
All of this places a premium on leadership—whether in government or business or the think-tank community—that sees national security planning as a fusion of hard power, technology, and global markets. That is why the announcement of incoming CSIS CEO General Joseph Dunford is good news for our organization and for the country. You can hear him describe his approach in his introductory conversation with outgoing CEO Dr. John Hamre.
This kind of long-view thinking has defined the career of Bill Reinsch, who is retiring from CSIS. Rigorous, witty, and unfailingly clear-eyed, Bill has shaped how Washington thinks about trade for a generation. Fortunately for us (and our followers), Trade Guys and his weekly column will continue. So, the tradition of straight talk on trade lives on. We aspire to follow Bill’s example across on the gamut of economic security and technology issues.
Stay tuned for biweekly updates featuring our latest publications, events, podcasts, and other department highlights.
- Navin Girishankar, President, Economic Security and Technology Department
Publications
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Photo: Fadel SENNA/AFP/Getty Images
Iran’s Real War Is Against the Global Economy
March 11, 2026
Navin Girishankar argues that Iran may be losing the military contest with the United States, but it is fighting a different war—one aimed at the global economy.
What Does the Iran War Mean for Global Energy Markets?
March 6, 2026
In this Experts React, the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change team evaluates how markets are responding to current events and identifies signposts for escalation or relaxation.
The Power of Innovation: The Strategic Value of China’s High-Tech Drive
March 2, 2026
Scott Kennedy analyzes how China’s advancement across high-tech sectors has directly strengthened the country’s international power and influence, and outlines how governments can pragmatically respond to these developments.
The Iran Conflict Is Sending Oil Prices Soaring—What Happens Next?
March 9, 2026
Clayton Seigle argues that, for oil and gas markets, there is no substitute for resuming exports from the Mideast Gulf. Without this, he warns that we’re heading for recession and painful inflation.
Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base
March 17, 2026
Joseph Majkut, Alexander Palmer, and Raj Sawhney recommend extending defense-critical electric infrastructure designations to industrial nodes, creating dedicated permitting and finance pathways to facilitate energy production, and integrating energy resilience into supply chain risk assessments.
Unpacking Iran’s Drone Campaign in the Gulf: Early Lessons for Future Drone Warfare
March 10, 2026
Kateryna Bondar analyzes Iran’s drone retaliation campaign during Operation Epic Fury, showing how mass one-way attack drones are reshaping air warfare and what lessons the United States can draw from both the Gulf conflict and Ukraine’s experience.
Pioneering Quantum-Supercomputing Integration: U.S. Leadership in the Next Computing Era
March 9, 2026
Hideki Tomoshige and Shruti Sharma argue that strategic investment in hybrid quantum–supercomputing systems can secure U.S. leadership in quantum-centric computing.
How Will Cyber Warfare Shape the U.S.-Israel Conflict with Iran?
March 3, 2026
Kuhu Badgi and Lauryn Williams analyze that the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran were accompanied by cyber operations targeting Iranian apps, news sites, and government services. They argue Iran will retaliate, and cyberspace is likely where that response will unfold.
Chicago’s Emerging Quantum Innovation Cluster
March 16, 2026
Sujai Shivakumar and his team put a spotlight on Chicago as an emerging major U.S. hub for quantum technology. Backed by world-class research institutions, strong state investment, and growing federal support, the region is building a powerful innovation ecosystem.
Russian Crude and India: Here to Stay Amid Middle East Tensions?
March 6, 2026
Shashwat Kumar analyzes that Middle East tensions and threats to Gulf oil supply complicate U.S. pressure on India to phase out Russian crude. Amid uncertainty, Russian crude oil flows to India might endure, not by choice, but by necessity.
The Satellite Encryption Gap: Why Everyday Citizens’ Communications Are at Risk
March 6, 2026
Lauryn Williams and Kuhu Badgi find that many satellite systems still transmit data without encryption. This gap leaves sensitive civilian and government communications vulnerable to interception by adversaries.
Announcement
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Photo: CSIS
Thamar Harrigan joins the CSIS Economic Security and Technology Department as Chief of Staff
Drawing on her extensive experience at the U.S. Trade and Development Agency and in private practice as a trade lawyer advising clients on federal regulatory matters, Thamar will strengthen the department’s operational capacity and expand engagement across sectors—enhancing EST’s ability to deliver timely insights and practical solutions to the most pressing economic and technological challenges facing the United States.
Podcasts
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Photo: iLab/CSIS
Confronting the China Challenge - Betting on America
March 4, 2026
In this special episode of Betting on America, recorded live at the 42nd Annual National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference, Navin joins the panel, “Industrial Policy and Economic Security: Confronting the China Challenge," to discuss what it will take to secure U.S. leadership in the long-term competition with China.
The Trade Guys
March 9, 2026
On this episode of the Trade Guys, Bill and Scott dive into the impacts of the Iran Conflict on world trade, especially for energy markets. Bill then gives an update on the Court of International Trade's efforts to implement the Supreme Court's IEEPA decision. They conclude by unpacking an escalating trade war between Ecuador and Colombia.
The AI Policy Podcast
March 6, 2026
On this episode of the AI Policy Podcast, Gregory Allen is joined by Owen Larter, Head of Frontier Policy and Public Affairs at Google DeepMind, to explore the often-overlooked world of AI standards and the role they play in shaping how AI is developed and governed.
Cache Me If You Can
March 16, 2026
On this episode of the Trade Guys, Bill and Scott welcome Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, who discusses a series of cases from his new book, China's Weaponization of Trade, which examines how the United States and China have deployed economic coercion, focusing on China’s extensive use of this tactic over the past three decades.
China Field Notes
March 11, 2026
In this episode, Gregory Allen and Matt Mande provide a detailed update on the Anthropic-Pentagon clash, including the Trump Administration's decision to label Anthropic "a supply chain risk," the lawsuits Anthropic has filed in response, and what these lawsuits and recent reporting reveal about how Claude has been used in the war in Iran.
Events
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Photo: iLab/CSIS
LeadershIP 2026
March 25, 2026
RSVP: Please join CSIS for LeadershIP 2026, the premier conference on intellectual property (IP), innovation, and national security policy, including the geopolitical competition for technology leadership, innovation in critical and emerging technologies such as AI, biotechnologies, and integrated communication and networking technologies.
Implementing a U.S. Cyber Force: A Conversation with Representative Pat Fallon
March 18, 2026
Catch the Recap: The CSIS Strategic Technologies Program featured a fireside conversation moderated by the Strategic Technologies Program's Lauryn Williams with Representative Pat Fallon (TX-04) and Commission member Maj. Gen. Ryan Heritage, USMC (Ret.), as part of the CSIS Commission on Cyber Force Generation.
Energy Dominance and the Defense Industrial Base
March 18, 2026
Catch the Recap: The CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program discussed and presented a new CSIS study, Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base. The event highlighted key observations and policy recommendations on the energy implications of revitalizing the defense industrial base.
China’s Great Tech Leap Forward and the Implications for the United States
March 2, 2026
Catch The Recap: Trustee Chair Scott Kennedy presented his new report, The Power of Innovation, arguing that China’s high-tech advances have strengthened its global influence and that governments must respond pragmatically to manage risks and seize opportunities.
The Future of AGOA: Building American Prosperity Through African Partnership
March 3, 2026
Catch the Recap: The CSIS Africa Program hosted a fireside chat with the Members of Congress, followed by a panel discussion with leading experts. The dialogue explored bipartisan pathways to examine how a modernized trade framework could deepen U.S.–Africa economic ties.
