Transnational Threats

The threat from regional terrorist groups and domestic extremist individuals is omnipresent. CSIS provides strategic thinking on the range of efforts to counter terrorist groups and their methods across the world.

Photo: ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images

Photo: ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images

The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch

A fragile ceasefire masks a far more dangerous reality: Iran’s nuclear ambitions unresolved, Lebanon destabilized, terrorism risks rising, and a shadow war between Israel and Iran poised to reignite at any moment.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 8, 2026

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Seth G. Jones

Seth G. Jones

President, Defense and Security Department; Harold Brown Chair
Daniel Byman

Daniel Byman

Director, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program

Nikita Shah

Senior Fellow, Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program
Riley McCabe

Riley McCabe

Associate Fellow, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program
Joel Coito

Joel Coito

Military Fellow, Defense and Security Department

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The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch

A fragile ceasefire masks a far more dangerous reality: Iran’s nuclear ambitions unresolved, Lebanon destabilized, terrorism risks rising, and a shadow war between Israel and Iran poised to reignite at any moment.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 8, 2026

Who Is Winning the Iran War?

The United States and Israel are devastating Iran's leadership and inflicting significant damage on Iran's already-weak military. Iran, however, is hitting back, and the biggest long-term costs to the United States are likely to be felt outside the Middle East.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 2, 2026

Iran’s Next Move: How to Counter Tehran’s Multidomain Punishment Campaign

Iran is executing a multidomain punishment campaign across energy, cyber, and maritime systems to coerce the United States and its partners. The challenge is not stopping attacks, but denying Tehran the economic disruption and strategic leverage they are designed to create.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — March 23, 2026

What Is Israel Trying to Accomplish in Lebanon?

Even as Israel and the United States fight in Lebanon, Israel is also in a major war with Hezbollah—a war designed to keep the group weak and off balance.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — March 19, 2026

What Can the United States and Israel Accomplish in Iran?

Secretary Hegseth called Operation Epic Fury “straightforward.” But while the United States strikes the Iranian navy, nuclear program, and missiles, Israel and Trump eye regime change. This piece deconstructs that daylight and the true cost of each goal.

Commentary by Emily Harding — March 11, 2026

Why Did Pakistan Announce “Open War” Against the Taliban?

Early in the morning of February 27, Pakistan’s defense minister announced “open war” between Pakistan and the Taliban, a group that Islamabad frequently backed in its 30-year quest to rule Afghanistan.

Critical Questions by Alexander Palmer and Alexander Margolis — February 27, 2026

How Would Iran Respond to a U.S. Attack?

If the United States strikes Iran, how will Tehran respond? History suggests a calibrated mix of cyberattacks, drones, maritime pressure, and limited missile strikes designed to signal resolve while avoiding a wider regional war.

Critical Questions by Benjamin Jensen — February 26, 2026

U.S. Military in the Middle East: Numbers Behind Trump’s Threats Against Iran

Eight months after Operation Midnight Hammer, the United States has again moved large air and naval forces to the Middle East. These can launch punitive strikes on Iran and protect U.S. allies and partners but lack the capability for ground operations, raids, or regime change.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — February 20, 2026

What Is Next After the Suicide Attack in Pakistan?

This morning, a suicide bomber attacked a Shia mosque in Islamabad, Pakistan. The most likely perpetrator is the Islamic State–Khorasan Province, which operates both in Afghanistan and Pakistan but has a significant interest in mass-casualty international attacks. 

Critical Questions by Alexander Palmer and Alexander Margolis — February 6, 2026